Toronto vs Cleveland Odds, Picks & +EV Data: Sharps On Cease UNDER K’s
A pivotal series in the AL Wild Card race continues with the Toronto Blue Jays (-119 at ProphetX) taking on the Cleveland Guardians (+117 at NoVig) and the total settling in at 7.5 runs with your best OVER odds at ProphetX (+107) and the UNDER at NoVig with -108 odds. A couple of strong arms will be on the mound with Dylan Cease getting the ball for the Jays and Joey Cantillo countering for the Guardians.
Blue Jays vs Guardians Odds Today
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | -119 (ProphetX) | -1.5 (+144 NoVig) | O7.5 (+108 NoVig) |
| Cleveland | +117 (NoVig) | +1.5 (-153 NoVig) | U7.5 (-113 NoVig) |
Odds as of September 2 at 2:45 PM ET
Blue Jays vs Guardians Analysis
Toronto saw its three-game winning streak come to a close last night with a 6-1 loss to Cleveland and now sits 2.5 games back of the Guardians for the third and final Wild Card spot. It was a rather abysmal effort for the Jays in the loss, slapping just three singles while racking up 14 K’s with six batters collecting two strikeouts each – yikes.
Angel Martinez continued his strong play of late, scoring three times including a two-run home run in the eighth and the outfielder now has gone OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in six of his last nine. What was perhaps most impressive was Cleveland had just three strikeouts in the victory which bodes well for the Dylan Cease UNDER 6.5 K’s play that can be seen on our smart money tab.
Cease has had fairly decent success against Cleveland batters in his career, giving up 26 hits across 105 at-bats for a .248 batting average, with three home runs and 25 strikeouts. Guardians first baseman Nathaniel Lowe has been particularly strong against the Cy Young hopeful, though, going 5-for-13 with two home-runs, 5 RBI and 5 walks – Lowe to hit a home run is +750 at BetRivers at the time of this writing.
As for Cantillo, his command was a problem in August, issuing 16 walks across 22.2 innings, including seven walks in six innings last Wednesday vs the Angels. You can play his OVER 2.5 walks (+150) at Bovada. He faced Toronto in late April, giving up three runs on six hits over five innings in a 5-3 defeat. Kazuma Okamoto hit a home run against the lefty in that game.
Check out our odds screen for the latest, up-to-the-second odds to lock in your best line for all props and game lines.
Blue Jays vs Guardians +EV Opportunities Tonight
At the time of this writing there are nearly 50 +EV opportunities for this game with the strongest +EV play coming on George Springer UNDER 0.5 RBIs at +3.2% where you can get -182 odds at betPARX which is 17 cents better than our fair value line of -199.
The best wager I’m seeing on the board, though, is coming from the Smart Money tool on Dylan Cease UNDER 6.5 K’s with +111 odds at DraftKings. As mentioned above, Cleveland was quite tidy last night with just three strikeouts, but that isn’t an aberration as the Guardians have the ninth-fewest strikeouts on the season at 1,111.
On the smart money tool there was just shy of $3,500 of liquidity on the OVER 6.5 K’s at Kalshi with +109 odds and DraftKings has the UNDER at +111 indicating there’s an arbitrage opportunity here and the sharps have placed fairly sizeable wagers on that UNDER.