Turn a stat projection into over/under probabilities and fair odds.
Your projected average for the stat, e.g. 6.2 strikeouts
Over Probability—
Under Probability—
Fair Over Odds—
Fair Under Odds—
What is the Poisson Calculator?
Counting stats — strikeouts, threes made, shots on goal, receptions — roughly follow a Poisson distribution. Given just a projected average, Poisson tells you the probability of clearing any prop line, which converts directly into fair odds you can compare against a book's price.
How to use it
1.Enter your projection for the stat (season average, recent form, or a model output).
2.Enter the prop line the book is offering.
3.Compare the fair odds against the book's odds — bet the side getting better than fair.
Example
Project a player at 2.7 threes per game against a line of 3.5: Poisson says the over hits about 28.6% of the time, so fair odds are roughly +250. A book offering +280 on the over is +EV.
